There
are parameters peculiar to this country that polling cannot really
capture, without some very provocative questions by pollsters. We are
still in unexplored waters, since experiencing the first black president
of the US. And now we are for the first time experiencing reelection of
our first black president.. Which, in many ways is very different than
the initial campaign in 08.
While Obama voters like BO, they no doubt have felt uncomfortable
with having the issue of race so front and center on an almost daily
basis, for so long a period. I am actually heartened by the steady
support PBO has had from the core dem base. You can see it in Gallup's
monthly polling on the president and approval from his party. But there
is a small contingent that is, imo, looking for any reason to go with
Romney this time. Some are conservative dems, others are dem leaning
indies.
And whatever votes O got from moderate republicans, has pretty
much vanished in the 4 years every POTUS experiences successes and
failures. Even though, in my lifetime, I can't think of another
president that has faithfully made the effort to keep his promises in a
campaign, of 08/ And when was the last time a dem presnit passed
sweeping health care insurance reform.? Or, passed the largest
discretionary spending bill in history, largely for long term
progressive causes like alternative energy R and D? It is why the GOP
thinks he is reincarnated Lenin, that has beat them time and again,
despite scorched earth unloyal opposition.
Simply put, Obama had to be much better than any white first term
president. Every day, all day, to keep the racially anxious on board.
All it took was a single bad night of debating, to cause the surreal
shitstorm that has ensued. Race by no means is the only factor in play
for the freakout of freakouts. But it is an important one in a country
that has been divided ideologically at around 50 50, dem and gop for a
couple of decades now., Not to mention the race effect motivating
formerly slacker wingnuts that have snapped to, with an Obama in their
WH. Maybe these deeper motivations are some behind the flux in polling
over one event, that was not a loss on substance, but of style, for an
incumbent the public has watched daily for 4 years now. And by most
accounts, seemed tired and listless, but still spot on for what he has
supported policy wise. Romney is still a dubious snake oil salesman, and
it is hard for me to see him getting elected.
