Sunday, June 27, 2010

Dog Day Charlie

On Our Central Asia Problem

The dogmatic isolationists want to believe that if we withdraw from the world that is now also a nuclear world, into our own borders, then everything will work itself out and folks will live in peace and prosperity, now that we are not there to cause bad shit to happen.

The neo cons and other militarists want us to believe that our status as the only military superpower in the world demands that we use that military to create a peaceful hegemony by force of arms, or the threat thereof, in every case across the board. Even where there are no apparent vital US interests.

The reality is the world was a warring blood lusting place before we existed. The other reality is that you can’t use the military but for specific reasons, where we have vital interest and they are threatened by another military force. It is not, and should not be used as a politcal weapon. Both the neo con and dogmatic isolationists, and they are on both sides of the left right divide, are some right, but mostly wrong from fixed ideology that does not think, but reacts only.

It is surely the case that our military adventurism has created some real bad stuff to happen that needn’t have, see Iraq for a recent example. But it is also the case that our perceived status as the world policeman has likely either prevented some conflicts, which are impossible to list due to not having happened. And has ended some that were ongoing.

And in a nuclear world, everyone should be concerned about events when they occur in places where such weapons exist.

The situation in Afghan,/Pakistan is exceedingly complex, but to dismiss us as having no interests in that region and clamoring for us to leave completely, either militarily or diplomatically is quite frankly insane, given the ingredients of instability, radical religiousity with militaristic intent, not to mention the possibility of a relaxed and unthreatened AQ to again have the space and time to blow up more civilians in the west, and about everywhere else, including their own kind.

But it is folly, imo, to continue an all out military campaign against a foe that cannot be defeated in a conventional military sense, and I think Obama now gets this and will end the whack a mole with the Taliban. What happens after that is above my pay grade, but it will not, and should not, imo, mean we pack up and go home completely. And we won’‘t.

Cross posted at Balloon Juice

On Current Polling For the 2010 Mid Terms and My Early Predictions

I am not paying much attention to polling in individual races like this one, at least not yet. But if you mine into the internals of these polls, even now, you will find some real bugaboos for the wingnuts, like a surprising, to me at least, persistent laying of larger blame for our current straights on the wingnuts. Where the blame belongs.

Sure many are polling well against incumbent dems, even in some blue states, but most are not really that focused on the actual race and it’s candidates in those states. They never do, until around labor day. So I think much of the negative polling toward dems is just a nay that things haven’t improved to the level most would like, and when faced with an election day choice of what lever to pull, will not pull the lever easily for the party, and it’s candidate they hold ultimately responsible for causing their problems.

Many will vote against dems, and there is no doubt the energy is highest on the winger side, but it has only been two years since the repubs and Bush were running things into the ground. When voters are reminded of this on their teevee sets, some reality will cause them to realize they only have two choices, and one choice they have been there done that for eight years instead of just two with Obama.

I am predicting that dems will lose 5 senate seats and 25 House seats.