Tuesday, December 4, 2007

A Ray of Light

by Ray McGovernFor those who have doubts about miracles, a double one occurred today. An honest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear program has been issued, and its "Key Judgments" were made public.With redraft after redraft, it was what the Germans call eine schwere Geburt – a difficult birth, 10 months in gestation.I do not know how often Vice President Dick Cheney visited CIA headquarters during the gestation period, but I am told he voiced his displeasure as soon as he saw the first sonogram/draft very early this year and is so displeased with what issued that he has refused to be the godfather.This time Cheney and his neocon colleagues were unable to abort the process. And after delivery to the press, this child is going to be very hard to explain – the more so since it is legitimate.
A Miracle: Honest Intel on Iran Nukes - by Ray McGovern

Ray McCgovern can seem sometimes like an absent minded professor, but I trust his judgments on CIA and intelligence matters.

The main points of the NIE:

"We judge that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program…

"We assess with moderate confidence Tehran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.

"We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely…

"We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame.

"We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015."

I think we will learn in the days to come the reason for the delay will have a name - Dick Cheney. So much bullshit from the Bushies, sometimes it's hard to tell whether their that stupid or kicking up dust to fool the American people. Maybe this NIE is why he had to have his pacemaker jump started a while back. In the days to come, the neocons led by Darth Cheney, will be spinning their asses off trying to create all the mischief they can to push Bush into disregarding the NIE and launch the military strikes,on Iran they crave so passionately. Problem is with all 16 intellegence agencies stating their  likely is no Nuke program currently in Iran, what''s a neocon to bomb. But then it's never been about Iran's nuclear weapon ambitions. What they seek is regime change and a chance to vindicate their insane ideology that America's military power can be an instrument of diplomacy to force US hegemony on real and perceived enemies of the west. Bush's statement today that his opinion of Iran hasn't changed is not encouraging.

Ray McCgovern states the situation perfectly.

Having reached these conclusions, it is not surprising that the NIE's authors make a point of saying up front (in bold type), "This NIE does not [italics in original] assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons."

This, of course, pulls out the rug from under Cheney's claim of a "fairly robust new nuclear program" in Iran and President Bush's inaccurate assertion that Iranian leaders have even admitted they are developing nuclear weapons.

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