Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Was Bush Behind the Iran Report? - Bob Baer

Was Bush Behind the Iran Report?Tuesday, Dec. 04, 2007 By ROBERT BAERGeorge Bush Iran nuclearPresident Bush discusses a National Intelligence Estimate that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.Brooks Kraft / Corbis for TIMEArticle ToolsPrintEmailReprintsSphereAddThisRSSClick here to find out more!Bombing Iran, it seems, is now off the table. There's no other reasonable take on the latest National Intelligence Estimate that concludes Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.Related ArticlesThe Fallout from the Iran Nukes ReportA US National Intelligence Estimate concludes that Iran is not an imminent nuclear weapons threat. What does this change?The Fallout from the Iran Nukes ReportThe Fallout from the Iran Nukes Report Monday, Dec. 03, 2007 By TONY KARON Ira...If North Korea, Why Not Iran?If North Korea, Why Not Iran? Thursday, Oct. 04, 2007 By TONY KARON Kim Jong I...Why the Tough Talk on Iran?President Bush must serve up a pretty convincing hamburger: Ever since his Kennebunkport cookout wit...More Bad Intelligence on Iran and IraqYou would think by now the Bush Administration would have drained the well of bad intelligence on Ir...But there is also no doubt that the Bush White House was behind this NIE. While the 16 intelligence agencies that make up the "intelligence community" contribute to each National Intelligence Estimate, you can bet that an explosive, 180-degree turn on Iran like this one was greenlighted by the President.And explode is what the hawks in and outside the Administration are about to do. They were counting on Bush being the one President prepared to take on Iran. As recently as last month, Bush warned of World War III if Iran so much as thought about building a bomb. Bush's betrayal is not going to go down well. The neocons, clinging to a sliver of hope, will accuse the intelligence community of incompetence, pointing out that as late as 2005 it estimated "with high confidence" that Iran was building a bomb.Bush's National Security Adviser, Stephen Hadley, put the best face on the new report, claiming that it was our diplomacy and saber rattling that forced the Iranians to back down. As for the intelligence community, it explained its reversal by hinting that new intelligence had surfaced.Neither explanation is entirely accurate. The real story behind this NIE is that the Bush Administration has finally concluded Iran is a bridge too far. With Iranian-backed Shi'a groups behaving themselves, things are looking up in Iraq. In Lebanon, the anti-Syrian coalition and pro-Syrian coalition, which includes Iran's surrogate Hizballah, reportedly have settled on a compromise candidate, the army commander General Michel Suleiman. Bombing Iran now would upset the fragile balance in these two countries. Not to mention that Hizballah has threatened to shell Israel if we as much as touch a hair on Iran's head.Then there are the Gulf Arabs. For the last year and a half, ever since the Bush Administration started to hint that it might hit Iran, they have been sending emissaries to Tehran to assure the Iranians they're not going to help the United States. But in private, the Gulf Arabs have been reminding Washington that Iran is a rabid dog: Don't even think about kicking it, the Arabs tell us. If you have to do something, shoot it dead. Which is something the United States can't do.So how far is Iran from a nuke? The new NIE says 10 to 15 years, maybe. But that's a wild guess. The truth is that Iran is a black hole, and it's entirely conceivable Iran could build a bomb and we wouldn't know until they tested it.Yet for now we should at least be happy with the good news: Armageddon is postponed.
Was Bush Behind the Iran Report? - TIME

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